Presage – Real-time insider detection for prediction markets
Iran strike case study is compelling, but backtesting on three events is thin.

Single-screen dashboard pulls a Polymarket wallet by address and surfaces positions, PnL, allocations and trade history — exactly what traders need when juggling bets across markets. The UI is deliberately minimal and readable, focusing on quick wallet lookups rather than bloated features. Useful as a lightweight explorer, though it would earn higher marks with wallet-connect, exports or deeper filtering.
Prediction-market traders, Polymarket users, crypto portfolio watchers
Iran strike case study is compelling, but backtesting on three events is thin.
Shows more than raw P&L: six metrics, trader archetypes (DIRECTIONAL, ACCUMULATOR, ALGO_TRADER), persistent grades and filters (active/inactive, search by wallet) make it easy to scan for repeat winners. The UX puts useful columns up front — volume, predictions, win rate and a computed grade — but I want to see the methodology and survivorship controls up front; leaderboard data without clear adjustments can mislead casual users.
Uses KL divergence to give asymmetric moves the weight they deserve (a 5%→10% jump reads way louder than 50%→55%), then multiplies that by log-volume, historical SNR and trajectory consistency to surface genuinely interesting shifts. Practical engineering choices — persisted snapshots, rolling detection windows, cooldown dedupe and Telegram delivery — make this something you can drop into a trading workflow and actually rely on.
Crypto tipping badges for READMEs when GitHub Sponsors already exists.
Talks straight to public Solana RPC endpoints in a tiny Rust binary — no API keys, no heavyweight SDKs — and spits out human tables or JSON for piping into jq. It even flags common liquid‑staking wrappers (mSOL, jitoSOL) and supports Token-2022 tokens, which makes it genuinely useful for quick audits and scripting. Not revolutionary — indexer-backed explorers still beat it for deep analytics — but practical and well-targeted.
Mockup seeking feedback with no working product — spec without substance.