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We wrote forensic intelligence reports on 20 open-source codebases
Forensic reports reveal why codebases break, not just what is broken.
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DhruvKumarJha
201mo ago
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Geopolitical intelligence platform with Bayesian predictions, live data ingestion, and AI-assisted analysis. Powered by Engram.
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Bayesian intelligence – geopolitical predictions from live public data
by dx111ge·Mar 9, 2026·1 point·0 comments
AI Analysis
●●SolidBig BrainWizardryNiche Gem
Bayesian math on live geopolitical data, but lacks real-world validation or case studies.
Strengths
- •Source reliability weighting (0.93 for World Bank, 0.25 for state media) flows through every prediction mathematically.
- •Evidence chains are fully traceable—you see exactly what data shifted which probabilities.
- •Fully local with optional Ollama; no cloud lock-in or telemetry.
Weaknesses
- •Demo covers only Russia/Ukraine; no evidence this outperforms domain experts or established intelligence products.
- •Bayesian updating assumes source reliability tiers are stable, but real-world geopolitical sources shift allegiance and accuracy constantly.
Category
Target Audience
Intelligence analysts, researchers, policy professionals, data journalists
Similar To
Palantir Gotham · FactBase · GDELT Project
Post Description
I built a local-first intelligence analysis tool that computes probabilistic assessments from live public data sources (GDELT, Google News, Wikipedia,private web search).
Every prediction has traceable evidence chains. Sources are weighted by reliability tier (World Bank 0.93, state media 0.25). Probabilities shift as new evidence arrives -- Bayesian math, not vibes.
Ships with 5 demo assessments on Russia/Ukraine and a 1010-node knowledge graph. Click "Ingest Now" to pull fresh news and watch the numbers move.
docker compose up http://localhost:8888
No cloud. No accounts. No telemetry.
Optional: run Ollama locally for AI-assisted analysis (summarize, challenge, what-if Questions).Similar Projects
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